Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $445,433$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{936,923.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 134.2)}}\) (asimptote \(936,923.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,769$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(82.3 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,752.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 124.4)}}\) (asimptote \(16,752.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $173,587$ on 2020-07-26

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,050$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(702 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,123.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 67.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,123.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $58$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(6.77 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 57.6)}}\) (asimptote \(57.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-07-26

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $92,062$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(3.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,589.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,589.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,606$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(154 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,521.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 106.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,521.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $53,625$ on 2020-07-26

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,307$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(52.8 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,579.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,579.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(0.589 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 108.2)}}\) (asimptote \(33.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $838$ on 2020-07-26

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,831$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(506 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,311.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 86.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,311.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $204$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(16.9 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{267.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 93.7)}}\) (asimptote \(267.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,117$ on 2020-07-26

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,071$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(171 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,001.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 97.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,001.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $51$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(4.87 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 61.2)}}\) (asimptote \(59.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,178$ on 2020-07-26

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,171$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(135 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,146.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 86.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,146.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $156$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(7.32 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{150.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 75.8)}}\) (asimptote \(150.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,585$ on 2020-07-26

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,357$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{209,154.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 218.1)}}\) (asimptote \(209,154.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,155$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(215 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,214.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 68.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,214.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,114$ on 2020-07-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Djibouti recovered 99%
Guinea recovered 52%
Mauritania recovered 47%
Congo (Kinshasa) recovered 46%
Mali recovered 30%
Cabo Verde recovered 22%

Guinea⮸

Population $13,132,795$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,008$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(1.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,809.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 61.7)}}\) (asimptote \(6,809.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $43$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(9.12 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 54.9)}}\) (asimptote \(48.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $813$ on 2020-07-26

Mali⮸

Population $20,250,833$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,510$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(367 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,665.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 63.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,665.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $123$ on 2020-07-26

Best fit exponential: \(24.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126.2}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(126.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $476$ on 2020-07-26