Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $445,433$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{936,923.5}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 134.2)}}\) (asimptote \(936,923.5\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,769$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(82.3 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(18.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,752.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 124.4)}}\) (asimptote \(16,752.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $173,587$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,050$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(702 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,123.2}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 67.4)}}\) (asimptote \(5,123.2\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $58$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(6.77 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{57.6}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 57.6)}}\) (asimptote \(57.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $26$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $92,062$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(3.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,589.0}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(101,589.0\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,606$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(154 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,521.8}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 106.1)}}\) (asimptote \(6,521.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $53,625$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,307$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(52.8 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,579.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 128.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,579.4\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $22$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(0.589 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 108.2)}}\) (asimptote \(33.4\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $838$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,831$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(506 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,311.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 86.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,311.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $204$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(16.9 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{267.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 93.7)}}\) (asimptote \(267.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,117$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,071$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(171 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,001.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 97.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,001.4\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $51$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(4.87 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.7}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 61.2)}}\) (asimptote \(59.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,178$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,171$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(135 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,146.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 86.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,146.2\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $156$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(7.32 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{150.9}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 75.8)}}\) (asimptote \(150.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,585$ on 2020-07-26
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $27,357$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(1.44 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{209,154.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 218.1)}}\) (asimptote \(209,154.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,155$ on 2020-07-26
Best fit exponential: \(215 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,214.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 68.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,214.1\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,114$ on 2020-07-26